HomeBaseballWhite Sox 2022 ZiPS projections that make me want to bet Dan Szymborski
White Sox 2022 ZiPS projections that make me want to bet Dan Szymborski
December 15, 2021
Every year, the cat friendly Dan Szymborski puts out his ZiPS projections over at Fangraphs. I’m a Fangraphs supporter and I really like Dan’s work. For some strange reason, Dan follows me on twitter. I’m not quite as star struck as I am that Steven Schirripafrom The Sopranos following me, but it’s still pretty cool. Regardless, as I perused this early release of the 2022 White Sox ZiPS projections, I couldn’t help but note how I’d FUCKING LOVE TO BET AGAINST HIM on some of what his model is churning out.
Dan of course doesn’t have to bet with me on any of these, he isn’t putting up betting lines, he’s putting up a projection. However, I think it could be fun if one of the top modelers in the baseball content game put up some scratch against one of the top thirst traps in the White Sox content game.
Anyways, Dan, hit me up on twitter, or slide in my DM’s if you want any of this action. LFG!!!
I remember when I didn’t believe Tim Anderson’s monster BABIP was a repeatable skill, it was coming off of his 2019 AL Batting Title (it still feels so damn good to type that). I thought, no way someone could replicate that kinda performance, he’s gots to come back down to earth. NOPE!!! Below are his BABIPs the last 3 seasons.
One of the first places my eyeballs went when I got to this article was to see how Andrew Vaughn was being projected. Not great to be honest, .245 / .325 / .429 (754 OPS). Then I scrolled up a few spots and saw that Jake Burger’s projection was nearly identical, .252 / .325 / .419 (744 OPS). Now, Jake looked fine last year in an abbreviated debut after years of brutal achilles injuries, but this didn’t square with me. Vaughn controls the strike zone very well, where Burger struck out…A LOT. Gimme Vaughn by 30 pts of OPS, min 50 PA. I don’t want some goofy 4 PA performance to get me fucked up here.
Dylan Cease was RIDICULOUS in the 2nd half of the 2021 season. Out of qualified starting pitchers he was #1 with a bullet at 35.0% K%. Lucas Giolito was his normally good self, but Cease’s strikeout stuff is outta this fucking world. Plus if he regresses, I’ll cry and then shit my pants, so that just can’t happen. ZiPS has Giolito with a small edge in K% 30.7% to 29.3%. We’ll say a minimum 100 innings pitched on this one just to make sure injuries don’t wipe either dude out.
I pretty much agree with ZiPS that we’ll get a dead cat bounce outta old Dallas here, but just eyeballing his annual FIP numbers, 2021 is the only full season he’s had over this number. I think this is going to be quite a bouncy dead cat and he’ll perform even better than the 4.77 projected FIP. I’d also like to see how the White Sox manage his innings to avoid his 2023 option vesting when that happens. ALWAYS THE DOLLARS.
This is a situation where I think the model got fooled by a single outlier event. That event was the Seby Zavala 3 home run game. It was like seeing an eclipse and watching the President look directly at it (that would never happen, right?). I’m quite sure that his 3 home run game got trapped in the algorithm and gummed up the system (sorry for the technical term). No way he even tops 61 OPS+. He’s absolutely brutal with the bat. ~40% Strike out rates don’t grow on trees you know.
So Dan, let me know if you want some friendly action, we could put something up for charity, or anything you want. The rest of yous reading, check out Dan’s article (previously linked above and) LINKED HERE. And let me know which ones are head scratchers for you.
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Low information White Sox Fan.
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2019 Opening Day #SoxMath WINNAR