BeefLoaf bets EVERY SEASON WIN TOTAL at – NL West

Dats right frents, I’m BACK!!! Betting EVERY SEASON WIN TOTAL at (PROMO CODE: 108ing) then go and check out the NL CENTRAL and AL WEST. Now let’s move on to today’s division, the NL West!!


Photo from the LA Times

Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 103.5

The defending World Series champs are returning materially ALL of the 2020 team. Jack-of-all trades Enrique Hernandez and strong side of the platoon masher Joc Pederson are the main subtractions from the banner raising squad of the COVID season. The Dodgers will get back David Price, who opted out in 2020. And after a fairly quiet off-season, they inked the highest priced Starting Pitcher on the market in Trevor Bauer. So how in the world are we betting the under here?

Baseball wins have a bit of an upper bound and even the best teams are going to need extraordinary circumstances to top off 103.5. This Dodgers team has as much star power as they ones of recent vintage that have been best in class. However, this team just feels thinner. Most of the top talent has surfaced at Chavez Ravine and for once they don’t feel like they have 9 starting pitchers somehow squeezed onto a 26 man roster. There is also the current playoff structure. I’d be very surprised if the Dodgers added a big piece at the deadline even if the Padres are breathing down their neck. I’d expect inertia. This team could be the best in baseball and never sniff 104 wins, that’s my point.

San Diego Padres UNDER 94.5

These guys fucked a lot of things, but most importantly the 1984 Cubs

With each one of these division seasons wins bet blogs, there’s always one number that to me feels right on. One team, where it’s basically a coin flip to me as to which side I should take. The Padres had far and away the splashiest off-season of any team in the majors. They dominated the news cycle. San Diego made impact trades, they locked down their generational talent for a generation and in the process made the rest of baseball fandom envious.

With all that being said, and for all fanfare of their “best in class” starting pitchers. The position player side of the ledger is leaning extremely hard on Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Manny Machado. Of the other 6 position player starters projected by Roster Resource, 4 have lasted on this blue / green circle for more than 10,950 days. One other, Jake Cronenworth, I have never even heard of before. That’s enough for me to go under.

Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 75.5

Feb 27, 2020; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Madison Bumgarner walks to the dugout after throwing to the Cincinnati Reds in the second inning during a Cactus League game on Feb. 27, 2020 at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick in Scottsdale, Ariz. Mandatory Credit: Rob Schumacher/Arizona Republic via USA TODAY NETWORK

The Diamondbacks are one of these teams, for me, that once we get past St. Paddy’s day they fade into the background and I can scarcely remember who is on the roster. They have no high end talent, forget Madison Bumgarner because he’s only high priced.

However, the Diamondbacks also employ a bunch of no-name decent players and have had a knack the last decade or so of creating above average players out of thin air. I have no clue if them turning mediocrity into above-averageness is a skill. Maybe mediocre players just sort of float out to the desert in search of a home and pan out occasionally. Regardless, the Diamondbacks are too good for this price and so they were the easiest bet for me out of this group. I wouldn’t be shocked if they put up a mid-80’s win total finishing well behind the Dodgers and Padres in 3rd place.

San Francisco Giants UNDER 74.5

This is Alyssa Nakken, first on-field, in-game female coach in MLB history. She is a bad ass.

The 2020 Giants almost snuck into the expanded playoffs . Riding a partially aged and otherwise unproven position player group to a solidly above average wRC+ of 113 (tied for 6th in Baseball with the White Sox), the Giants made it to the final week with a shot at the playoffs. Let’s be honest though, that was iron pyrite. Not likely to be achieved again. Their starting pitching is even scarier. Lucky for them Kevin Gausman accepted the qualifying offer otherwise this would be YAMA HAMA FRIGHT NIGHT!

While I appreciate the Giants not going into full rebuild tankzilla mode, I’ll appreciate it even more if they fail to win 75 games this season.

Colorado Rockies OVER 63.5

The Blake Street Bombers at Coors field,1995 baseball season. Clockwise from bottom, Andres Galarraga, Dante Bichette, Larry Walker, Vinny Castilla. Photo by Dominic Chavez/Denver Post

The Rockies are the punchline in an innumerable amount of SABR dorks jokes these days. It’s their own fault, they built up an excellent young homegrown core and although they did go out in the market and spend money to try and and finish it off, they failed miserably. Bad purchase after bad purchase, seems like my early homeowning career. Then this season they top it all off with basically giving away their franchise cornerstone Nolan Arenado, while also paying off some of the contract.

So why we betting the OVER? Well this feels like a buying opportunity if there ever was one. One thing you can fucking count on in gambling is if most reasonable educated informed people agree on some shit, you should bet in the other direction. Not because those people are wrong, but because the price is going to reflect too much over confidence. That’s this price.

The Rox have 4 average to above average major league starting pitchers. They still have Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon as above average regulars. This team also sports at least 3 former fantasy sleepers that I have drafted or bought at auction in the past and one of these days them dudes GOTS TO BE GOOD…RIGHT?

That was fun!! Remember if you want to bet along with the BeefLoaf or go oppo taco on my bets, be sure to hit the Pointsbet link HERE or earlier in the blog or that gigantic banner below and deposit using the promo code: 108ING


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