BeefLoaf bets EVERY SEASON WIN TOTAL at – NL Central

On a recent FromThe108 podcast I bragged about my tournament poker win in the QPT aka Pnoles Online Poker League. I noted how I like to have some gambling projects going at all times, as it helps keep my brain sharp. I used to be way deep in that world, making a good chunk of my annual income doing gambling stuff. If you want to hear Chorizy and I talking shop about advantage gambling, check out this episode of Chicken Dinner hosted by Sam Panayotovich. We go deep on the esoteric topic of making money gambling.

A classic, albeit out-dated sportsbetting tome

One of the key tenets of making money betting on sports is picking ONLY +EV SPOTS (EV stands for Expected Value). In other words, only bet when you have an edge. It’s true. It works, BUT……IT’S FUCKING BORING…..BORING LIKE BEING AN ACCOUNTANT.

So, what we’s gonna do, is we are going to bet the entire board. That’s right, we are going to use our friends at PointsBet PROMO CODE 108ing and bet on EVERY. SINGLE. SEASON. WINS. TOTAL in MLB. We won’t skip a single team, we’ll wager on every team. We gots to pick a side. LFG!!!


Picture from the St. Louis Dispatch

St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 86.5

I know the Cardinals are supposedly the only team in the NL Central that “Did Anything” but Nolan Arenado just isn’t a big enough upgrade to make me think they go over. I really didn’t think the Cardinals were any fucking good to begin with. They lost two of their better position player contributors from the shortened season, Kolten Wong and Brad Miller. The Cardinals chose to re-sign Yadier Molina to catcher emeritus. The pitching staff is just a little too dependent on a guy who is 39 years old. They also lose the advantage of playing nothing but Central teams. FUCK THE CARDINAL WAY!

Milwaukee Brewers OVER 83.5

Robin Yount looking like Larry Bird hillbillier cousin

The Brewers used to be a big rival of the White Sox before some of yous were born. Let’s just say Chorizy and I have a super memorable experience at a Sox / Brewers game as kids, which we detailed in THIS BLOG.

I like these Brewers though, they are a lot of fun. This is exactly the type of team that overachieves a modest win total like this. Per their Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projection, they basically have all league average or better regulars, with some depth to spare. This team also sports two young starting pitchers with monster upside in Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes. I haven’t even mentioned their super bullpen with Josh Hader and reigning NL ROY Devin Williams.

Cincinnati Reds UNDER 82.5

Pictured is the slop we know as Skyline Chili

I want to like this Reds team, but I don’t think I can. Last year’s Reds worked their proverbial arses off to barely sneak above .500, including making deadline trades to bolster a mediocre roster. Gone from that team are just the NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer and a top closer in the league Raisel Iglesias.

It’s not just the players they lost. Sonny Gray is a prime trade candidate and they also have a weird position player roster that is highly unbalanced. As of this moment, Roster Resource has them starting something called Kyle Farmer at SS, but Nick Senzel is coming off the bench. That doesn’t seem like a situation begging to exceed expectations if you will.

Chicago Cubs OVER 79.5

Picture from

The Cubs made about the biggest waves of the early off-season by trading away Yu Darvish from a 1st place team and then having noted failed real estate developer Tom Ricketts put a freeze on spending.

So why on God’s green earth would I be betting the OVER in this spot? Well, I realized that the Cubs aren’t much worse than they were last year and they have several veteran players that seem almost destined for a dead cat bounce. Joc Pederson is an upgrade over Kyle Schwarber and in the most important way, he’ll go catch the ball. That’s how the Cubs are best, playing terrific defense and with Pederson in place, this might be their best defensive team in a couple tree years. Now, as much as I like this bet, let’s not go crazy. I don’t expect or even want them to go to the playoffs. They deserve the karmic fall-out of Ricketts dbaggery and having employed noted scumbag Jared Porter.

Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 58.5

This felt like a trap to old BeefLoaf. I really don’t enjoy hitting that under of a real low total like this, even when I think it’s correct. It reminds me of an old NFL angle on really low total games. Pretty sure that the angle was totals under 34, the UNDER would hit at some monstrously profitable rate like 58%. I forget. Regardless, the Pirates are trying to be the worse team you’ve ever seen and I think they got a chance to succeed.

The roster as presently constituted doesn’t have much widely recognizable talent. Ke’Bryan Hayes is a good young player. Other than him, I’d expect any semblance of a decent season from Adam Frazier or Gregory Polanco to result in them changing ZIP codes by the time we are awaiting the NFL lid lifter. If they pull some Major League Cleveland Indians shit, I’ll applaud them, but I think this number of 58 might not last long so if you want to get in on the under, you better go!!

That was fun!! Remember if you want to bet along with the BeefLoaf or go oppo taco on my bets, be sure to hit the Pointsbet link HERE or earlier in the blog or that gigantic banner below and deposit using the promo code 108ing


Pointsbet Sportsbook with the FromThe108 crew

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