HomeBaseballBlimey! White Sox sign Liam Hendriks as the newest bullpen wanker
Blimey! White Sox sign Liam Hendriks as the newest bullpen wanker
January 11, 2021
The title is the best I could fucking do about tryna inject a little Australian slang into the 108 blog. I hope my aussie fellas, Jason Hosking and AJ Mithen approve of this shit!!
Let’s get to the fucking particulars….
That option year is being a little confusing to me….it’s gonna take a little clarification.
Oh, okay, now I think I have the contract thing down…..
I recently wrote about the White Sox and some things that may or may not be upgrades to the 2021 roster compared to the 2020 roster, that full blog is HERE. But from it I pull some tables, Hendriks was very fucking high up on a stat called Win Probability Added or WPA which is a nice little stat for closers as it reflects game situation and can be helpful in their evaluation.
That’s pretty damn good…..#1 in baseball for relievers across 2019-2020 period. Here’s some more stats from that same period for Hendriks among qualified relievers.
1st in fWAR 5.2
6th in ERA 1.66
1st in FIP 1.66 (that’s Fielder Independent Pitching, which is like a proxy for ERA with a little bit more predictive characteristics for future performance)
4th in K% 38.4%
In short, Liam Hendriks is a bad dude and a real weapon at the back of the bullpen.
HERE’S THE POTENTIAL RUB…..
Hendriks threw A LOT of fucking innings in 2019. He threw 85 innings to be exact. In fact he’s #2 in IP in the 2019-2020 period for qualified relievers with 108 1/3 innings. That seems like a lot and in this era, 85 in one year seems like a lot. Below is a table that looks like total vomit, but it encapsulates the 45 relievers since 2012 that have thrown 80 innings in a season (qualified this with the pitchers having a maximum of 2 starts, just to make sure we are getting relievers in the pool).
Trying to use historical data I wanted to see how much potential damage a season like that could be to a Liam Hendriks. In order to do it fairly, or at least as fairly as the BeefLoaf knows how, I wanted true peers, so I did the sample like this. Must be at 150 ERA+ or better (you can see the yellow cut off at Seth Lugo) and must be within a two year band of his age when accomplishing the feat, so he’s 30, I’ll go with players aged 28-32 for the sample. Now let’s see how these dudes performed in seasons after that.
Lugo – 1 season, 36.2 IP, 83 ERA+
Petit – 3 seasons, 197.2 IP, 159 ERA+
Otero – 4 season, 234.2 IP, 162 ERA+
Stammen – 2 seasons, 154.1 IP, 119 ERA+ (suffered significant injury missing the next 2 seasons)
As you can see, it’s a bit of a mixed bag when the usage for a reliever is that high, some of these guys are fucking thoroughbreds like Petit, and others haven’t faired nearly as well with health or performance or both. If there is a risk to a move like this it’s that Hendriks was rode hard and put away wet, so to speak.
In closing, I tend to always look at these free agent signings, particularly in a competitive window as INSURANCE for the rest of your talented roster. Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, TA7, Gio, Yoan, on and on…they are your mansion on Lake Michigan and you want to keep that shit tip top, so you gots to buy insurance on it, right?
You don’t need to win the $$$ per WAR championship on all of your free agent deals. All you want to do is put the money out there to give you the best roster and if a closer is one of the pieces you need and that person is making more than the rest of the market, FUCK IT!! Just build the best goddamn’d roster you can. The White Sox are a better team tonight, there is still some work to go, but you can start seeing the finishing pieces coming together.