Avi Garcia – Trade, Extend or Nothing….

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In the 15 months or so that we have been writing in this space, I think we have probably written about Avi Garcia too much.  Whether it be to talk about WHY the White Sox continue to give him chances, or to make fun of him for sneaking under 260 lbs as a playing weight.  The 108ers are intrigued by Avisail Garcia.  The other night, I ran a Twitter poll of our followers and there isn’t a general consensus on what the White Sox should do with Avi Garcia

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So, I figured, as any blogger with a mediocre offering might do, I would breakdown the potential actions….

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TRADE

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The whole thought that Avi could be traded was kicked off via a rumor, of course, it was a Cafardo, so it is likely to have no basis in reality.  I remember when Sam Smith used to write for the Bulls and he would make up trade scenarios, at least he wrote them in a way in which, you knew he was just making something up and it was fun.  Nowadays these fucking guys make up shit and then blasted it out there like it is reality.  It’s a bunch of BS.  Anywho, so, Cafardo noted that the Cardinals were looking at Garcia and a few other power hitting RF’s.  I looked up and down the rest of the playoff contenders and pretenders and truthfully didn’t see much in the way of a team that really needs a RF.  The only other team that looked appetizing to me, were the Mets, but not for this year, they’ll start clearing off the Granderson and Bruce contracts at the end of the year, they could probably use a young controllable (at least for 2 years) RF to help out in their competitive window.  Besides those two teams, you got me.

Truthfully though, I don’t need to find a suitor, if Avi is to be traded, someone will emerge. I am just in need of finding a prospective value back in trade.  Avi is tough to compare given that he’s had 3 pretty blech seasons and now 3 pretty excellent months.  He’s still not walking a lot, but the “walking a lot” folks need to go fuck off, you can be a plenty valuable player with power and high contact rate.  The two most comparable trades from last deadline are the Mets trading for Bruce and the Rangers trading for Beltran.  The Bruce deal netted the Reds Dilson Herrera who was a top 10 prospect in the Mets system, but graduated from his prospect status and a lottery ticket.  The Beltran deal, which required the Yanks to toss some cash in the nap sack that went along with Carlos to Texas included a top 5 prospect in the Rangers system (Dillon Tate) and top 100 overall and two lesser prospects that were top 10 round picks in the 2014 amateur draft.

In other words, it isn’t likely that an Avisail Garcia trade ends up with much star power included in it.  It is possible that his control with 2 arb years remaining would boost the haul, but it is likely you would just be adding more assets and setting the clock back on those assets.  It is doubtful you line up something with as much promise as say, I dunno, 2013 Avisail Garcia.  If trade is the answer, it may be a signal that the competitive window is a little further away (say, starting in 2020) and that the White Sox need more assets that start arriving then.

EXTEND

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This is a tough one, as Garcia has 2 arb years left.  For the 2017 season he netted a 1 yr $3M deal before going to arbitration.  Truthfully, he was pretty terrible heading into his 1st arbitration year and still got $3M.  Arbitration is pretty kind to giving raises if someone could, oh, I dunno, put up a .900 OPS season.  You might expect Avi to pick up a $3M to $4M raise in 2018 and a similar one in 2019.  Which would put Avi’s salaries at say $7M in 2018 and $11M in 2019, the White Sox would need to buy those out and then buy out some portion of free agency.

I think the closest thing to Avi in estimated value might be someone like Mark Trumbo who got 3 yrs 37.5M.  Truthfully, if you think Avi is actually this Avi, he’s much better than Mark Trumbo, so maybe Ian Desmond‘s 5yrs $70M is closer to accurate.  Let’s assume if you extend Avi (and the extension would have to occur around now or at least before he puts in an entire season of being a 3 to 4 win player) that the extension would be for 5 yrs and $75M (buying out arb years 2018 & 2019) and then signing him through  2022 (his age 31 season).  Avi might feel some loyalty towards the White Sox and get something like this done.  Or, he might realize that he goes to free agency at 28 and could make more money than this when he does.

NOTHING

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This is the best action in my opinion.  I don’t think the market yet believes in the new Avi, making trades tougher and I think it is pretty cost prohibitive to the future competing White Sox teams to possibly fuck up this extension.  I think you let Avi play this out and then in 2018 you re-evaluate.  Maybe he finds his level as a 2 WAR RF and then you decide that he’ll be cheap enough to extend or a valuable enough commodity to trade for a real chip.  With the current expiring assets on the roster, I think Rick Hahn has his hands full trying to unload everything that isn’t nailed down for something of future value.

 

– BeefLoaf

The 5 – Reasons TO Buy The Hype

Have you bought in yet? Find yourself wanting to head to 35th and Shields to catch some of this awesomeness? It feels good Sox fans.  For us who have suffered through the past few seasons, we deserve this.  The players deserve this.  Ventura deserves this.  Here’s my 5 reasons to buy in now!

Offseason moves.

Unlike 2015, the Sox actually filled holes.  Frazier, Jackson, Avila. In the short term, it seems to be working. Allowing Garcia to only DH, makes sense.  Maybe will keep him healthy.  Who knows? The talent is there, let’s stay healthy guys!

AMAZINGLY Good start.

I ran into Jim Rose (@jimroseabc7) at Walgreens down on State St. I asked him his thoughts before the season started and he hesitated to give me the solid thumbs up.  he was very concerned with the clubhouse mood after the whole LaRoche  incident.  But he did say we’ll know how well this team will do a few weeks into the season.  I agree 1000%.  In 2012, they started strong and held that lead till September.  Sad decline, but was a fun year to watch Sox baseball.  I think that year also set us back, thinking that we did have the right components for a winning team, which we clearly did not after three abysmal  seasons in a row. We chatted about some other stuff, which I will share with anyone in a private conversation, then went about our way.  Mine was to look for clearance Easter candy that didn’t suck, his was for gift cards.

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Timely hitting.

It’s been kinda sparse, but last year when we had two on with no outs, you hit that slump in the order that produced little to no runs.  Had to deal with the Beckham and Flowers vortex that just sucked any momentum we had going.  This year, so far, we have seemed to come up and got a few hits that got us the runs we needed to win that game.  I hope it will continue to happen as the bats warm with the weather, but honestly, who knows. If we are down 2 runs in the 7th, this year we know it isn’t over.  Been very fun to watch.

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Matt “El Niño” Albers and the pitching staff.

I like his passion.  I like his pitch selection.  I like his overall size.  His consecutive out record that he was carrying since last August is just a nice thing to see.  Good to see the bullpen coming in and kicking some ass.  Will he keep this type of production up the rest of the year?  Maybe.  Most likely not, but let’s hope so.  Will he help you finish a helmet sundae?  You know he will.  Cause he’s a team player.

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Chris Sale is 6-0.  Mat “Cat” Latos is 4-0. Jose “Q” Quintana is 3-1.  Once again, it’s early, but these are some great numbers. I bow to you Donnie Cooper. The offense is helping it happen too. We have a stinker, Mr. Danks, but honestly that guy is trying as hard as he can.  He’s had his chance, it ain’t working, let’s bring him in for long relief situations.  I like John, but it’s time to move on.  Bring in the new guys, feed off their energy.  Feed off this hella good start.  Let’s cash in bitches!

No pressure.

Besides us crazy ass fans, no one is expecting the White Sox to do anything.  I want them to have a chance to make the playoffs.  They don’t have to make the playoffs, but I would like to see some meaningful baseball in September.  They boys up north have all the pressure on them.

We are playing the perfect hand.  The city is Cubs crazy.  The fact that the Sox have stayed with ’em as far as wins is really amazing. Fans are starting to show up on the southside, causing some longer wait times, which is pretty cool too.  The best baseball is being played in Chicago right now.  Amen. Good time to be in the city.

UPDATE – I wrote this weeks ago, still holds up, but within that time the Sox have swept two series.  They are playing crazy good right now.  I am almost fully on board.  However, I know once I buy in at 100%, shit will go badly.  So for all of you, I will not be 100% till we make the playoffs.  It’s awful fun to watch them win though.

-MSS