I Bet $1,000 on the 2025 White Sox OVER 49.5 WINS

Hi, I’m BeefLoaf, it’s December and I have bet $1,000 (actually $1,100) on the 2025 Chicago White Sox. Please don’t call Gamblers Anonymous on me you fucking snitch!

A little over a week ago, friend of the 108 Sam Panayotovich tweeted that the MLB regular season win totals had been released on the marketplace and the White Sox number was a hilariously low 49.5

This is the lowest amount of regular season wins I can remember ever seeing and the twitterverse seemed to agree, no MLB team had ever opened sub 50 wins on the betting line. The 2024 White Sox were an especially terrible team. A real outlier of funkiness. Most of you reading this already know. That team was unmatched misery for those that stayed with it long enough.

They tied the American League record for consecutive losses, then with a week to play, they were in position to break the modern record for losses in a single season. It got so bad that the New York Times sent one of their top writers to spend the week with the 108ers and write a cover story about us. This is all before they ambled their way to Detroit and finally set the infamous record. Oof!

So why on earth would someone bet so much money on the terrible fucking White Sox??

Like Fat Tony If I Have an Opinion, for Ethical Purposes, I Like to Have a Corresponding Exposure

I’m a big Nassim Taleb fan. He’s a flaneur, by his own definition, but to me he’s an author, philosopher, thinker type. He has a character in some of his books called Fat Tony or the more polite Brooklyn Tony or the more politically correct Tony Horizontal. Regardless, this character firmly believes that to have an exposure = having an opinion. A BET, in layman’s terms. I believe in this as well, as much as possible. Betting just clarifies things. It cuts right to the point. There’s no wiggling out of things when you have an exposure. Being right is meaningless. Winning the money (or whatever stakes are determined) is what it’s about.

Otherwise, one could just tweet #lasershow all across WST and then when they are wrong become a football “expert”. We don’t do that. We want a stake in our opinions, right or wrong. Think about how many of your favorites have a strong irrefutable opinion on something. Were they right? If there was an exposure, I bet you’d remember it! Next time they say something you think is off base, offer them a wager, or better yet, even if you agree, offer one…it’ll help you remember how “EXPERT” they really are.

The 2024 White Sox Weren’t As Bad As the Record Showed (Still Pretty Bad Though)

These expected records are from Clay Davenport’s website. He calculates three different expected records, we don’t need to get into the weeds into how these are calc’d. If you like that sort of thing, hit the link. But looking at the far right, the White Sox were pretty unlucky by between 7 and 9 games and that’s based on their terrible play from last year.

Forget all of the fancy recalculations, here is an easy one, the White Sox were 13-29 in one run games. One run games should run pretty close to .500 no matter how good / bad a team is. So not only should they improve strictly on dumb luck, but their horribad performances from individual players should improve as well. I’m mainly thinking about their offense, having, legitimately, 1 above average hitter….ALL DAMN YEAR!

The White Sox Offense Has to Improve, RIGHT?

Looking at these wRC+’s from the incumbents, I think I’d blindly bet over on all of them (maybe not Korey Lee), so that should be an instabump on the putrid 2024 White Sox offense. If Steamer is to be believed (and YMMV on that), the 2025 roster looks to have several above average hitters. Enough to make you think that the White Sox offense will only be slightly stinky, not the .278 OBP atrocity they were last season.

What About Garrett Crochet?

We aren’t trying to ignore the elephant in the room, the White Sox traded their best player. We did 90 minutes discussing the return (see below).

That’s going to hurt. Not only from an equity standpoint on my $1,000 (actually $1,100) but from you and I and everyone else trying to watch the White Sox (when we can actually see them) on a daily basis. I’m not hand waving that away, I’m just saying, normal luck and only a moderately terrible offense is enough to win (the bet). Even if the roster compiled looks slightly more grungy than the cover of a Mudhoney album. They have to be better, right? RIGHT!?!?!

Truthfully, I’m not trying to sell any of yous on the 2025 White Sox. All I am trying to tell you is that betting, for lack of a better term, is good, unlike what you might hear elsewhere. Make the stakes responsible, but enough to hurt you, both in the pocket book and on the socials, if you lose. So keep listening to whoever you think is smart and their “strong takes” with nothing on the line and I’ll keep cashing STEAK DINNERS *wink, wink*.

-BeefLoaf