Let’s take a look at Chris Flexen
Yesterday, we heard the White Sox had agreed to a 1yr/$1.75M deal with Chris Flexen.
It’s not the sexiest of signings and it’s not clear if Flexen is meant to be a starter, a reliever, or somewhere in between. So let’s take a look at Chris Flexen and take some guesses at what the White Sox might be trying to do here.
Pitch Mix
Take a look at this video, don’t worry, it’s short. But keep in mind, this is from September 2021. That will be important:
Curveball
Let’s start with the curveball, because perhaps you saw that and thought “that looks pretty nice.” While he threw that pitch 430 times or 15% of the time in 2021, he’s only thrown a curveball 119 times over ’22 and ’23. It’s been replaced a bit by a slider. But really, Flexen has moved to being a mainly 3 pitch pitcher. This could be part of the problem and perhaps the Sox will encourage him to add a pitch back to the arsenal to keep hitters more off-balance. Now, to be clear, when he stopped throwing the curve in ’22 it was because it was getting absolutely hammered. In just the 79 times he threw it, batters were slugging 1.308. Yes, the decimal is in the right place on that.
4-Seam Fastball
Now this is something. This is his most used pitch. In 2019, his average velocity on this pitch was nearly 95 MPH, in a small sample. Additionally in ’18 and ’19 (again in small samples), his walks per 9 innings were up above 8. That’s bad. But then he spent 2020 in Korea and seemingly found some control. And while the velocity dipped, it was still sitting around 92.8 MPH. That year, this pitch was valuable to him and it was hit hard 41% of the time in comparison to ’22 and ’23 where it jumps to over 50% hard hit. This is problematic for a guy who doesn’t strike anyone out. There was a dip in velocity that goes along with this which leads to these pitches turning into HRs. Let’s look at pitchers that logged over 100 IP and who had the highest HR/9.
If you’re wondering, Michael Kopech and Lucas Giolito are 6 and 7 on that list. But I digress.
It’s possible, this is where the White Sox see opportunity. If they can get even just a small uptick in velocity, he could be similar to his 2021 self. Especially if they’re able to add back a pitch. It’s also possible they see moving him to a more full-time bullpen role which will allow him to ratchet up the velocity and not need to add a pitch back. Adding velocity is the only way this works though, because if you look at the above, you’ll see a glaring disparity between his K/9 to Lynn’s. That’s the difference between a starter and a long man.
Cutter
Flexen’s cutter has consistently had the best movement out of his pitches. Despite that, it has not been terribly effective for him. Perhaps he’s using it in the wrong spots, perhaps he doesn’t have quite the control over it that he should, or perhaps he’s just unlucky. It will be interesting to see how the current Sox staff handles this. We know the crew from a few years back would tell him to throw this as much as possible, but let’s see.
Changeup
The changeup is Flexen’s best pitch in terms of run value and it has remained a positive for him even as he has regressed in the past 2 years. If moved to relief, he may turn into just a 4-seam/changeup pitcher. The changeup could benefit from an improved 4-seamer, because this is really his only out pitch. For a guy that strikes out less than 7 per nine innings, he needs a better out pitch. There is some value in his changeup and it might be what attracted the Sox to scoop him up.
Possible Outcomes
So what might this turn into. Let’s think of a few scenarios:
Overly Optimistic – In the next 3 months, the White Sox are able to help Flexen address multiple issues, throw harder, reduce home runs and he becomes a fixture in the middle/back of the rotation. I wouldn’t bet on this.
Optimistic – Flexen is converted into a full-time reliever and his reduced pitch mix and increased velocity make him effective in a middle relief role.
Realistic – With some minor tweaks, Flexen is able to establish himself as a swing man. Making some spot starts, coming in for long relief when someone gets blown up, and eats a bunch of innings for a team that will really need it.
Pessimistic – He stinks and Pedro keeps rolling him out there until Getz has to cut him.
This is something BeefLoaf and I discussed on this week’s podcast. The White Sox, and Chris Getz in particular, need to learn to buy from the bottom of the pile. The previous administration bought at the top of the market and spent far too much on the bullpen. This is a different approach and even if the pessimistic scenario occurs, cutting ties comes with minimal cost and therefore shouldn’t be a big deal at all. All Flexen really costs you is a roster spot, but the 40 man and even the 26 man roster have a lot of expendable players. Adding Flexen and Tim Hill into the 26, Tanner Banks is still hanging on to a spot in the bullpen. The White Sox can continue to churn the roster adding players with a slight improvement over the player currently in that role. And boy, they still need to add A LOT!
-Chorizy-E
About The Author
chorizy
Section 108 Row 13, Bassist for Barren Plains, Acclaimed drunkard