Why Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. Might NOT Get Traded at the Deadline

The trade deadline is zooming towards us frents and there’s been less action than I got on prom night. However, coming off of the lovely Kansas City #108ing Road Trip, I am feeling pretty lucky, so why not espouse a theory or better yet build on one?

Ken Rosenthal recently reported that he thought it more likely than not that the White Sox would hold on to their substantial deadline trade chips in Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert. The theory here is that the White Sox could get more in the off-season for these guys given that there will be more suitors looking to compete in 2025 than teams realistically thinking they can compete coming down the stretch in 2024. That sounds plausible, but I think another idea might be holding all the cards here and I most recently read it in the Joe Sheehan Newsletter (see excerpt below).

I know that’s small, so I’ll re-rack the main theory.

“Sometimes the trade deadline isn’t poker, it’s craps; Just putting yourself in position to catch a big hot streak in a negative-EV game.” – Joe Sheehan

What the Fuck is Joe Talking About?

What Joe is trying to say is that teams don’t really tend to take BIG SWINGS anymore at the trade deadline. Think about when you were trying to find comps for a big trade at the deadline of recent vintage, you got the Luis Castillo deal (desperate ass Mariners tryna get in the playoffs), you got the Juan Soto (the first one, featuring desperate ass AJ Preller) deal….and that’s about it. Most teams tend to be taking the path of gambling on some high volatility options. Lots of relievers, expiring contract starters and mediocre bats that were once good, but haven’t been in a fortnight. Right? Teams acting like a hockey team putting a lot of pucks on net hoping for something good to happen. Or betting $12.50 a spin on Buffalo Chief hoping for a jackpot.

Why don’t bigger deadline trades happen?

Theory One – The Expanded Playoffs Cheapen the Spots

As I peruse Fangraphs 2024 Playoff Odds at this moment, there are 8 teams with 80% or better chance of making the playoffs. Those teams probably don’t really want to spend big as even though they are locks (relatively speaking) to be in the tournament, none of their World Series Winning % exceeds 17%. Not to mention no single player they trade for is likely to move them higher than 20%. Imagine lobbing 3 cherished prospects for the absolute stud below and adding 2.6% to your World Series Winning %. *Fart Noise*

Not to mention the teams manning the remaining 4 spots are veritable longshots to win the World Series (ignoring the fact that last year’s World Series teams were #5 and #6 seeds, from a probability standpoint, it’s tough af to get there from them spots). I highly doubt any of those teams are looking to launch substantial future resources right this minute to improve their chances of making the tournament by 5% and their World Series Winning % by 1% or whatever.

Theory Two – Risk Aversion

Look, nobody wants to be the guy that trades away Fernando Tatis, Jr. That’s career suicide, even if you work for Jerry Reinsdorf, you’ll eventually be fired, never to work again. The risk in this era is dealing away that monster, young, cost-controlled player. You can get by a long-time without taking a big cut and just winning 54% of your games, some people are even shooting for that. Look how fucking happy Jed Hoyer is to do very little of impact at most deadlines and he’s been running that game awhile now. Nobody cares.

Theory T(h)ree – The Playoffs Are Mostly Luck

The Playoffs are mostly luck. As mentioned in the previous sections, adding a star player only moves your overall % of winning a few points. But think about this even more, you are playing a super short tournament, that features a bunch of coin flip situations…..errr games (50 / 50) or veritable coin flip situations 60 / 40 or 40 / 60 games……if you are a playoff team, wouldn’t you rather take a chance at a bunch of cheap-o scratch offs and holding your good young guys for next year’s run, then leveraging them for a single stud muffin like the guy pictured above? Seems like a lot of modern GM’s prefer that approach. Sometimes I just think the incentives to win aren’t quite there like they used to be.

So if the fellas don’t get traded, it’ll be just like ole BeefLoaf at the nickel slots tryna hit a jackpot instead of going to the high limit room and playing that double deck blackjack game with the good rules. As frustrating as it may be, you can hardly blame them.

-BeefLoaf