Why I bet the Paul Skenes strikeout under

Paul Skenes is one of the top prospects in baseball and today we’re going to get our first glimpse of him in the major leagues. He’s facing the Chicago Cubs, so honestly, there is nothing I want more than for him to channel his inner Ricky Vaughn and stick it up their F’n A.

But when it comes to put my hard earned dollars on a bet, I tend to look elsewhere. Not so much the stats or the people on tv telling me what the good bets are (sorry Sammy P) or the trends for rookies under 22 in the first major league game in the NL on a sunny day while being the free game on mlb.tv.

No, I look at what the sharps are betting on. And I do that by checking out the lines on the sites that take big limits. That’s where the sharps bet because you can get down money like you’re trying to make a living from it. Here’s the Skenes strikeout line at one of those:

Now here is the line I bet at DraftKings:

The disparity is huge. Where sharps have pushed the under 6.5 to require $200 to win $100, I can still find lines where I only need to bet $140 to win $100.

It’s not surprising that this line is available. At the legal on-shore sites, the public money is gonna sway the line differently than the sharp money in a situation like this. Pretty much everyone except Cubs fans want to see Skenes come out firing and rack up an awesome first outing. So putting a few bucks on him to sail past 6 strikeouts is a nice little Saturday afternoon bet.

Now I just sit back and wait for him to throw 10 Ks and all yous tell me what a dumb fuck I am.

-Chorizy-E