White Sox 2026 ZiPS Projections that make me want to BET Dan Szymborski

Every year, the cat friendly Dan Szymborski puts out his ZiPS projections over at Fangraphs. I’m a Fangraphs supporter and I really like Dan’s work. However, I’m a betting man and anytime I look at projections I can’t help but think about which ones I would bet against. Reviewing the 2026 White Sox ZiPS projections was no different. Last year, I absolutely barbecued Dan, going 4-0-1 in this same blog (we’ll consider the Prelander Berroa one a tie considering he got hurt before the season).

This is Dan Szymborski

Okay, enough with the greetings and salutations, let’s get on with the bettings.

Over Kyle Teel‘s entire slash line of .247 / .333 / .373

Kyle Teel slashed .273 / .375 / .411 in half a season in 2025. Yes he had an inflated BABIP of .361 that isn’t likely to persist, but he was a young hitter adjusting to the toughest level at the toughest position. He really ain’t even get to the power yet. It would surprise me if his batting average was sub .250, it would shock me if his on-base percentage dipped below .330. I think he’s likely the future star of this team.

Grant Taylor Over 25.6% Strike Out % (K-Rate)

This was ultimately the most the surprising projection in the pile. In the minors and the majors, he’s never had a season of K% this low, not even remotely close. The 34.4% K-Rate in 36 2/3 major league innings was far and away the lowest of his professional career. The projection might makes sense IF the White Sox were planning a transition back to the starting rotation, but the early speak from the White Sox front office is that ole Grant is going to be in the back end of the bullpen.

Shane Smith over 103 ERA+

Shane Smith raced from Rule 5 pick to All-Star to Ace of the White Sox staff, all in a brief 9 month period. For the record Smith brandished a 110 ERA+ in his breakout 2025 season, but never mind that. What we saw in 2025 was a young pitcher who we (the uneducated observer) thought would start in a desolate White Sox bullpen. Who ascended to the starting rotation and proceeded to continue to exceed expectations all season, including over-coming a dead arm period to pitch some of his best ball from August on (4-1, 3.17 ERA 26.8% K-Rate, 8.8% BB-Rate). Even with potential batted ball luck that goes into ERA (and ERA+), I would still find a 7% regression surprising given the player in question.

Everson Pereira UNDER .171 ISO

The White Sox recently acquired Pereira in a small trade with the Rays. Another in a line of upside plays that the team hopes will help them formulate a winning core moving forward. Pereira has power and tons of it! So why am I betting against all that power by saying his ISO (Isolated Slugging aka his Slugging Percentage – Batting Average) will struggle?

It is believed that in order to help Pereira get his MLB career started off correctly, that he’ll be full immersed into the White Sox hitting lab with Ryan Fuller and Derek Shomon. If the approach is to work on swing decisions, I expect a more tepid version of his power coming through this season. Kinda like second half 2025 Luis Robert Jr. who approved across the board with his numbers, but never really tapped into the upper bounds of his power potential.

Under .354 On Base Percentage for Sam Antonacci

I can’t exactly pinpoint the moment when Sam Antonacci got hotter in these White Sox Twitter streets than Karen Smith, but it has happened. I for one ain’t buying the hype. A .354 OBP from a guy with a total of 5 home runs in 519 minor league plate appearances? That would shock a BeefLoaf in this major leagues. I think we’ll get into it later, but I don’t see him just running over Chase Meidroth to be the everyday second baseman just yet either. The Antonacci hype is getting a lil ridiculous. Regardless, under for the MAX on this one.

And there you have it, 5 bets that I would make against Dan Szymborski’s 2025 White Sox ZiPS projection. Dan, if you are reading this, let me know if you want to bet on any of these and we can line up a friendly wager.

-BeefLoaf