The Joey Gallo Home Run Prediction

Now, I understand that I do not have a great track record of predicting home run counts.

But stick with me for just a few minutes. I assure you this is not a long read, but comes with a prediction you can mock for years.

The Signing

We learned of the Joey Gallo signing on Thursday, while prepping for the hottest show on the internet: The FromThe108 Podcast.

It was strange timing as we planned to talk about Michael A Taylor and in my notes for the show, I wrote about Taylor and Paul DeJong being guys at a point in their career where Getz was looking to improve defense and hoping a guy might run into some home runs. And at this point in Joey Gallo’s career, he’s basically that. He was worth 7 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and 3 Outs Above Average (OAA) at first base last year. Additionally, he can still play a decent corner outfield and probably even fake CF if needed. But the bat, well it might be over. In 263 PA last year, he had 19 extra base hits (9 2B, 10 HR). But only 36 hits total! That lead to a .613 OPS and 74 OPS+, woof. In comparison, Gavin Sheets had a .660 OPS and 90 OPS+ and you and me know he was stinking up the place. I mean, it’s weird writing that Gallo might be an upgrade on Sheets, but solely based on defense.

The Fit

Gallo is probably best suited for the role Gavin Sheets played last year. But is that even a role this Sox roster needs? I don’t know. Like them or not, they’ve filled the outfield to the point you can see Andrew Benintendi getting a good amount of DH at bats. The Sox also don’t sit Andrew Vaughn very often. He’s played 152 and 149 games in the past 2 years. This provides a reasonable probability that Gallo is sent to AAA Charlotte to start the year. His contract may allow him to opt-out, I don’t know that at time of writing this.

The Prediction

Let’s assume he ends up in Charlotte, it is a HR hitter’s dream. But let’s also assume, his low average persists. Gallo could hit a bunch of bombs without showing much improvement in getting on base. If you couple that with guys like Edgar Quero and Kyle Teel graduating to the majors in that time, the need for a lefty bat diminishes. This could cause Gallo to remain in AAA for a prolonged period of time. Now, the Sox are too awful to ignore him if he’s chasing the Joe Bauman 72 HR record. But could he hit 40? I say he can. Joey Gallo hits 40 HR in Charlotte.

-Chorizy-E