White Sox Trade Candidate: Erick Fedde

Companion episode of the Au Jus: 108.ing/fedde

This will come as no shock to you, but the White Sox will be sellers at the deadline. Assuming they don’t move Garrett Crochet or Luis Robert, Erick Fedde will be their biggest trade chip.

Which 2023 trades can be used as comps?

In these comps we’re looking for starting pitchers traded at the previous deadline with future control. While we normally would not put Fedde in the same group as Verlander and Scherzer, we’re talking about a very specific trade deadline situation.

Justin Verlander

Astros received: RHP Justin Verlander, a boatload of cash considerations
Mets received: OF Drew Gilbert (Astros #1 prospect, #68 overall), OF Ryan Clifford (Astros #4 prospect)

Max Scherzer

Rangers received: RHP Max Scherzer, a storage locker of cash considerations
Mets received: INF prospect Luisangel Acuña (Rangers #3 prospect, #44 overall)

Aaron Civale

Rays received: RHP Aaron Civale
Guardians received: 1B Kyle Manzardo (Rays #4 prospect, #37 overall)

What type of prospect should the White Sox expect in return?

Based on the 2023 comps we have harvested (and YMMV on them), I would suspect that due to the quality of pitcher Erick Fedde is right now. The White Sox should expect at least one 50 FV prospect. Those types of prospects usually range starting around the 40th to 50th best prospect in the game all the way down in the low 100’s.

However, given his contract status (controlled for 2025 as a very reasonable $7.5M and only owed a pro-rated portion of that same $7.5M in 2024) the White Sox might be entitled to a lottery ticket along with this level of prospect or possibly spreading the risk out into two 45 FV prospects that they like.

This will depend highly on how Chris Getz wants to negotiate the risk profile of the deals. So far in the 10 months he’s been GM, he’s liked quantity over quality in some respects, spreading out the asset return risk across several players instead of going for one big headliner in each deal.

Who are some probable trade partners?

Basically everyone needs starting pitching help going into the trade deadline. You might find a few unicorns that have a ready made rotation with little risk and sufficient depth on the farm to back it up that they don’t really need an Erick Fedde, but that’s rare. But, let’s narrow the search to the best types of trade partners.

As we saw from the last trade deadline with the haul Hahn and crew acquired from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, a team desperate to make their roster work and get to the playoffs can be a great trade partner as they’ll shove in harder to acquire the necessary talent.

The other next best group to consider as a trade partner is an organization that has such prospect depth that they can easily afford to juice the return with depth and satisfy the value required that way. The Los Angeles Dodgers are a team that comes to mind. Getz also made the Dylan Cease trade this way with the San Diego Padres, as their coffers are generally deep with talent.

Houston Astros

The Astros find themselves in a precarious spot as we near July. As we’re writing this, they’re 4 games out of the wild card and 6 out of the division lead. Injuries have left them lean at starting pitching. That plus a combination of an aging team and a division leader that seems catchable all seems to point to the Astros buying at the deadline. The next month will be important, but they’re firmly in this list if they don’t fall apart. The stros have a couple guys with that 50 FV profile mentioned above, so they could be a good trade partner.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants are currently rolling with a 2 man rotation! They’re getting guys back, but health is very much an issue. If they want to commit to the wild card race, they’re gonna need help. The Giants are an interesting trade partner as Brian Bannister would likely have a lot of opinions on their minor league pitchers and who he’d want.

Milwaukee Brewers

Not exactly a team in crisis, the Brew Crew lead the NL Central by 5 full games over the Saint Louis Cardinals and have generally been one of the best teams in the NL through roughly 50% of the schedule. They did however trade Corbin Burnes in the off-season so there is a gaping hole in their rotation. Their starting pitchers are 27th in FIP coming into Sunday’s action. It’s an easy area of improvement and Milwaukee has substantial prospect depth. While they do have the requisite 50 FV talent, they are also flush with 45 FV (or 45+) in the system should Chris Getz want to spread the risk as he’s known to do.

Cincinnati Reds

Cincy finds themselves in a much different spot than their NL Central cohorts, they are 8.5 games back of 1st (in Last Place). However, they are only 2.5 games back of the final wild card spot and they are flush with position player talent. Their starting rotation is below average (18th in FIP entering Sunday), but anchored by two talented young arms, Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene. The resident veteran on the staff, Frankie Montas, has made 14 starts, but has been unremarkable, with a 4.52 FIP and a 94 ERA+. The rotation needs veteran help, particularly help that is under control for an additional year as their position player base continues to mature.

What should we expect?

If the Dylan Cease trade is any indication, Getz is willing to wait until he has the deal he wants. He’ll likely say things in the media about how they can just hang on to Fedde and have the top of their rotation in place for 2026 with him and Crochet. But we should all expect him to be moved and anything less than what we’ve described above would be a disappointment. Anything more should be commended.

-Chorizy-E and BeefLoaf

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