The Munetaka Murakami ROY Betting Market
The White Sox recently signed Munetaka Murakami to a 2 year $34M deal. There is an excitement in White Sox fandom that hasn’t really been there over their last 3 years of at least 100 losses. That excitement, however, is not limited to Sox fans. The betting market widely prices Murakami as the second most likely outcome for AL Rookie of the Year.
With an international player, I immediately wondered if this was the same outside of the US. So I fired up the VPN and looked to some of the more popular books in Japan. I also took a peek at the old off-shores we used to use, memories of Vinny Ng’s money orders abound. What I found was where I can even find a line, they were all pretty similar:
Bovada has the ROY bet up, but no Murakami. Before you ask, there isn’t a field bet. Otherwise we might have a bet cooking.
Murakami being only a 4 to 1 bet on this award is encouraging, but it’s early in the off-season. So let’s think through why he might be this high and if this could be the best or worst price we’ll see.
Before we start, I am not giving you gambling advice here, your bets are totally up to you. I am more curious about the starting price and what could be causing it.
Professional Success
If you look at the top 2 based on odds, you’ll see Trey Yesavage and Munetaka Murakami. Both have had success at a level that most on this list simply have not had the opportunity to achieve. Anyone who watched last year’s playoffs knows who Yesavage is and what he can do. If that holds for a full season, it would be hard to touch him in the ROY voting. Murakami has had success in the NPB crushing 246 HR across 892 games, carrying a .951 OPS. One concern I had here is if voters may take issue with “rookie” status, but neither the number reflects it nor do previous winners like Jose Abreu and of course Shohei Ohtani.
So being able to point to these numbers provides some guidance on what they can do, but more importantly they give bettors confidence. The books know this, and you pay for it with lower odds.
Samuel Basallo had some time with the Orioles last year, but it netted him a -0.2 bWAR and you can see that impact on his number above, sitting at +800.
Opportunity for Playing Time
Unless he comes out and goes 0 for his first 50 ABs, Murakami is a solid lock to be out there every day for the White Sox, health permitting. That’s not something you can say for everyone on this list. The previously mentioned Basallo and Yesavage should be out there on a regular cadence, as will Chase DeLauter. However, the guy on this list I think might be the best player is Kevin McGonigle. So why is he at +650 and behind Murakami and Yesavage? He’s not yet on the Tigers 40 man roster. Do the Tigers not think he’s ready? Will he be a shortstop at the big league level? As a White Sox fan, those questions make me happy. But as a bettor, I would like a bit more certainty that he’ll be on the 26 from day one.
Looking at players that have won over the past decade (not including 2020), the lowest bWAR was 3.0. And that was when Luis Gil notched 15 wins as a rookie. This is simply to say that to accumulate the stats needed and the amount of times the writers voting on it see you play, you should be on the team from the start of the season.
There is some incentive for teams to do this, in the form of possible draft picks for a ROY award. But it’s still very much up to the team to make this determination. That causes uncertainty and the market is impacted by that. McGonigle’s price is exhibit A.
Power
Murakami has a 70-80 grade skill, which is his power. Basallo possesses the same grade and you see them both in the top of this list. Power can generate one of the most important things to voters: home runs. Sure we can call it run generation or something that makes you feel more intelligent. But when Nick Kurtz cranked his 30th HR as a rookie last year, that was pretty much all she wrote. Either of these guys can do that.
Am I betting it?
Right now, I’m staying away. In terms of winning it with only info we have right now, many things a bettor may look at pushes you toward Murakami. And the books are absolutely making you pay for that. There are some very good players on the list and some that will be playing premium positions. My guess, and it is just a guess, is that as more certainty of playing time comes into focus for the others, this list will get jumbled and reorganized. I don’t think he starts the season top 2. That says nothing about how much I liked the signing. If you want that, you can check that out here. It just says that I think his favor will wane.
-Chorizy-E
About The Author
chorizy
Section 108 Row 13, Bassist for Barren Plains, Acclaimed drunkard