White Sox 2025 ZiPS Projections that make me want to BET Dan Szymborski

Every year, the cat friendly Dan Szymborski puts out his ZiPS projections over at Fangraphs. I’m a Fangraphs supporter and I really like Dan’s work. However, I’m a betting man and anytime I look at projections I can’t help but think about which ones I would bet against. Reviewing the 2025 White Sox ZiPS Projections was no different. I thought I did this blog every year, but it seems I skipped 2024, so feel free to look back at 2023’s blog when I won 3 of the 5 I would’ve bet (if Dan offered it and provided sufficient liquidity for my gambling jones).

Okay, enough with the greetings and salutations, let’s get on with the bettings.

Davis Martin UNDER 110 ERA-

I don’t usually deal with ERA-, I’m generally an ERA+ guy, but the article here provides a write-up on the difference. Basically though, they are just flipped. ERA+ above 100 is better than league average and ERA- below 100 is better than league average. So what I am saying is that I think full year, fully healthy Davis Martin is basically a league average pitcher. I know that’s exciting, so make sure you have a cigarette to calm down over this proclamation.

Prelander Berroa over 24.0% K-Rate

I’m not really sure if Prelander Berroa becomes a 2023 Gregory Santos clone that gets traded for more, but I do know the guy misses some bats. 31% K-Rate last year and although I know he goes through times where he can’t find the strike zone with a map (and I mean this bish that some of us luddite mufuckas keep in the car), I’m comfortable in him not letting hitters touch him. Keep throwing that slider!

Miguel Vargas under 103 OPS+

The dejected face of a Miguel Vargas (who had been traded from the Dodgers to the White Sox) after loss #21 in a row tying an American League record, is one of the lasting images of a horrible season. Vargas mirrored this atrocity in his individual performance. In 42 games he hit .104 / .217 / .170 for an absolutely brutal 14 OPS+. Now I don’t expect Miguel to be as ill prepared for the assignment as it looked like he was at the conclusion of the 2024 season, but I am also not ready to believe the dead cat bounce predicted here.

It’s possible he rights the ship and starts pounding the baseball, but I think in order to reach 103 OPS+ threshold, he’ll need a manager that is selective about sitting him on the bench and for my money I think the White Sox are in the mode of “finding out what they got”, which means he’ll get cooked enough by pitchers that can attack his weaknesses to not get there.

Andrew Benintendi OVER .148 ISO

I’m not the biggest fan of Andrew Benintendi, but he’s a veteran hitter and he learned a valuable lesson about being a left handed hitter and playing in Sox Park last season. Just pull the ball and lift it into the air.

That approach lead him to 20 Home Runs and a .168 ISO (btw, ISO is just SLG% – AVG, very simple). I think Beni will do something similar on that front in 2025 and the White Sox are a little more equipped roster wise with other vet outfielder to give him a day when he needs it so maybe there’s even some upside here.

Jonathan Cannon over 16.7% K-Rate

As easy as it might look to bet against some of the young starting pitching that the White Sox have in the holster, given how unproven they are, I think I am going to bet on one of them. In 2024, Jonathan Cannon had a 17.4% K-Rate in the bigs and that was after having to redo his repertoire on the fly. I suspect as he gains comfort in approach, his athleticism will take over and allow him to exceed these meager strikeout rates while maintaining above average control.

And there you have it, 5 bets that I would make against Dan Szymborski’s 2025 White Sox ZiPS projection. Dan, if you are reading this, let me know if you want to bet on any of these and we can line up a friendly wager.

-BeefLoaf