Let’s Gamble!!! MLB Season Win Totals

Baseball and Bullshit is the 108’s thing, but Gambling is mixed in there somewhere…..so this weekend, (3 day weekend, YAY! YAY! President’s Day!!!) yours truly, the BeefLoaf took a look at MLB Season Win totals.  This is for entertainment purposes only….but you can bet that I’ll end up with some scheckels on a few of these teams.
Detroit Tigers UNDER 68.5
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Last year the mess that was the 2nd half Tigers put on a full out assault on seeking the #1 pick and they got there by being devastatingly bad in the 2nd half.  I don’t expect them to get any better this year as what remains of their aging starts are a year older and they are very likely to look to trade anything with promise and not enough service time to make it to the next good Tigers team (I’m looking at you Michael Fulmer).  This is a super lox bet and probably the best bet of the group.  It has already been bet down to 68 where I can find it, but it should still be plenty good.  Miguel Cabrera would need to Triple Crown this bish again to keep them from losing enough to cash this ticket.
Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 85.5
Atlanta Braves v Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks had a great year last year, but a little too much voodoo magic propelled them there.  JD Martinez hit like Babe F’n Ruth in the 2nd half from them….he’s no longer there and the rest of the NL West is getting better around them.  I actually like their pitching staff okay, but I could see this team regress back to under .500…..the Giants def upgraded in the offseason, Rox upgraded, even the Padres put their money where their damn mouth is and added Eric Hosmer.  This could be a tough year for the D’backs.
Oakland Athletics OVER 74.5 
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I love my wife….and more impressive than how much I love my wife is how much I trust my wife.  Always have, always will….that being said, as I often tell Biguns “I trust Billy Beane more than I trust my wife!”  That’s the crux of my bet here with the A’s.  Sure the AL West has gotten tougher since last year, but so have the A’s.  I know Billy Beane fucked up the Josh Donaldson trade (Brett Lawrie #RIPInPeace) but he’s allowed a stinker here and there.  The A’s have a good team this year, it isn’t filled with superstars, but it is filled with good solid players.  They might also get some bumps from young players to solidify a solid core.  There isn’t a playoff team here unless one of the Matt’s becomes a total monster (Globo Gym has Laser, Blazer and all kinds of Azers’….the A’s have the Matt’s).  It’ll be fun peeking in at those box scores from the late night games and watching me cash this unsuspecting ticket.
Philadelphia Phillies OVER 75.5
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I’m not sure the Gabe Kapler managerial reign (or as I like to call it, the Tony Little regime) will bear as much fruit as some folks in the media who abso-fucking-lutely love the hire!!!  But this team has a good amount of talent.  You know you are going down the right path when your kids are coming up and pushing out okay MLB regulars from their spots and you are signing a big bat and need to move around another big bat to accomodate that player.  The young pitching also has room to take a step here AND it just wouldn’t surprise me if the Phils spent some additional $$ on one more starter out in the depressed market place.
Tampa Bay Rays OVER 77.5
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This is sort of a contrarian pick as I think most people look at the AL East and see the Red Sox / Yankees domination and would be scared away.  This number also could move lower based on the recent Rays transactions (which truth be told I don’t think move this number in reality at all).  The Rays have a solid young corp of talent, with or without the recent players they have jettisoned (including Evan Longoria).  I think, this bet will likely come down to how long Brent Honeywell spends in the minors this year.  The Rays have the young pitching / talent to surprise, but they are also a team that likes their corporate welfare and their cost controlled players.  In a similar way to why I don’t like the D’backs voodoo magic, I do like the Rays and suspect that they’ll come through and be in the wild card race into September.
– BeefLoaf

 

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